Oh iKitesurf, you are the bane of my existence somedays. Today I've attached snapshots of two different model forecasts. The first being the WF-WRF that I have been posting, and the other is the Blend Quicklook forecast. I'm posting both to show how drastically different the models can be with one another. Note the direction and speed is completely opposite from one table to the next. In the WF-WRF model it's showing low numbers blowing from the Southwest. The Blend Quicklook is showing gusty offshore Easterly winds. So which one is right? Well going off my post from yesterday I'm going to lead towards the WF-WRF for the morning, but more towards the Blend Quicklook in the later afternoon.
Here's why I'm combining the two. This morning we have some cloud coverage and cooler temps, but wind is blowing steadily from the Southwest for an onshore breeze. These conditions represent what we see in the WF-WRF model. Looking ahead at our weather today we have clear skies and temperatures exceeding the high 70's and nearly low 80's. These conditions will produce gusty winds similar to what we see in our Blend Quicklook forecast. The tough part to call today is our wind direction. Usually when we have higher temps roll in this time of year we get our gusty Santa Anna off shore breezes early, but with an onshore flow happening already its not following the usual protocol. I believe this is why we are seeing different forecasts. With the WF-WRF going off what the current wind is doing it's calling for the light breeze, but will update itself later this afternoon to reflect the Blend Quicklook forecast when temperatures rise and winds fill in. So my prediction is this, winds will stay light through the morning from the Southwest. As the day clears and temperatures rise we will see a quick build with gusty Westerly winds that turn offshore in the late afternoon. Foilers may be able to get a chance out there in the early afternoon around 1:00-2:00 PM, but I think it'll be to inconsistent for twintipers to get a solid session. I'll try and throw up a midday report today to see how things turn out. Happy kiting everyone!
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