Decent Day & Decent wind

End of day recap: 
Well, looks like things lined up pretty well out there today. Wind kicked in quicker than forecasted, and hit well above projected numbers.  What was not anticipated was the UP and DOWN nature of the wind.  Looks like things were doing well for about two hours with the wind in the high teens low 20's then a quick fade to low double digits. Check out the wind graph below for the full details of speed and direction.  

Original post: 
Clear skies, fresh cut grass, birds are chirpin....man I really love looking at iKitesurf in the morning.  Wind and weather are shaping up to be a decent day in Belmont Shore. Clear skies in the morning with the wind already blowing 7 MPH out of the Southwest make for a good start. With yesterday's quick build I'm anticipating a similar trend with winds again possibly reaching higher numbers than forecasted.  With warm weather coming in the following days we are going to see some strength coming over the week, and this may be the kick off for it.  My call for today is foilers hitting the water by 1:30, and possible twin tip weather by 2:30.  

I won't be able to do an onsite report today due to my laundry list of errands, but I will do my best to check iKite and post an updated WF-WRF forecast. To supplement for my absence I wanted to talk a little bit about the forecast table that I post along with my write up.  Below is a snapshot of the iKitesurf 1KM Southern California WF-WRF premium forecast table.  It is one of the more accurate forecast for our area, but comes with a price tag as it is only available to premium iKitesurf members. If you do have an account I recommend setting this forecast table as your default forecast.  I use this forecast as my go to when checking the wind for the next 48 hours.  The reason it tends to be more accurate is it focuses on a higher resolution satellite image of a smaller area.  This also limits its long term forecasting keeping it only to a 48 hour window.   I have been told from iKitesurf that this forecast uses algorithms that use wind data from previous years to form its predictions.  The longer this forecast is in use the more accurate it will become.  One of the downsides of this forecast is its initial forecast doesn't hold true throughout the day.  This is why I started to blog to help students read between the lines when looking at this model in the morning, and what to prepare for in the afternoon.  I compare this model to what the current real time wind is doing along with the general weather for the day. If I wake up and see dense cloud coverage, cooler temps, and a South wind, but with a strong forecast I tend to draw the numbers down a bit or anticipate a later start. If I see clear skies and wind blowing steady from the West/Soutwest I'll tend to bump the numbers up a mile an hour or two.  
To simplify all of this use this checklist when reviewing the morning forecast, and it should help you in what to expect in the afternoon.

• Weather
  • Good: Clear skies early and afternoon temperatures high 60s to mid 70s
  • Bad: Dense cloud coverage and cool temperatures.  Also for our later months high afternoon temperatures exceeding 80.  This has to do with our heat bubbles that I'll get to in later blog posts. 
• Wind
  • Good: Current wind is blowing from the Southwest or West as this is our dominant wind direction. 
  • Bad: Current wind is blowing from Southeast or South.  This is our morning eddy that can put a damper on a quick start.  Usually it is coupled with cloud coverage and thick marine layer. 

I use these tips along with reviewing the forecast to make my best call for the day. 

NOTE!!! I am not a weather man, nor do I have a degree in meteorology.  This information is what I've put together over nearly 10 years of kiting in Belmont.  This approach has worked fairly well for me over the years, but the weather is still the weather.  I hope you use these tips when viewing our forecast, but don't expect 100% accuracy. Also for my fellow veteran Belmont kiters please let me know what you review in the mornings besides the regular forecast.  Happy kiting everyone!